Write the lead here.
What we keep noticing
Write the observed situations here.
Why it keeps happening
Write the cause here.
What this observation predicts
Write the predictions here.
What it doesn't predict
Write the limits here.
All observations
Observation
Expectation Compression
Career changers, returners and late starters keep trying to compress a six year career arc into eighteen months, then quit in month fourteen when the maths stops working.
Also called: compressed runway, the eighteen month plan.
Essay in progress
The pattern has earned its slot but the long form essay is still being written. The instances below are the live places this observation already appears on the site.
Where this shows up on POST
The live surfaces where this pattern is doing real work. Watching it land in different places is how you start recognising it yourself.
- Perspective
The problem isn't age. It's expectation compression.
The essay that first named the pattern, working through what compression looks like and why the first knock finishes it.
Open - Perspective
Why career change advice keeps breaking
Most career change advice ignores compression, which is why people who follow it bounce out around month fourteen.
Open - Perspective
The second beginner problem
Compression is what happens when somebody refuses the second beginner stage. The two patterns travel together.
Open
Related patterns
The Second Beginner Problem
People who were senior in their first career arrive in their second one unwilling to be juniors again, then spend a year proving that the work does not care about the previous title.
Wrong Pool
Hiring briefs and job hunts keep failing because they are aimed at a candidate pool that does not produce the work the seat actually needs done, and the people who could do the work are reading a different job title.